Analysis Group Team Issues Report Estimating Projected Global Economic Impact Associated with the Spread of Virtual and Augmented Reality Technology
February 16, 2016
An Analysis Group team led by Managing Principal Lau Christensen, and including Vice President Greg Rafert and Manager Carletta Wong, was retained by Facebook to study the global economic impacts associated with the spread of virtual and augmented reality (VR/AR) technology over the next five years. Given the difficulties of predicting the economic impact associated with new innovations such as VR and AR, the Analysis Group team utilized a range of potential adoption scenarios and approaches to characterize the inherent uncertainty in any economic predictions. In particular, the team considered two approaches to measure the impact of VR/AR on GDP -- a "conservative approach" that estimated economic impact only in the form of revenues from VR/AR headset sales, and a more optimistic "comparable approach" that inferred additional economic impacts that could be realized as a result of VR/AR adoption.
Depending upon the rate of adoption of VR/AR technology, and the extent to which additional economic impacts beyond headset revenues are realized, the Analysis Group team estimates that global VR/AR revenues for 2016 to 2020 will range from $2.8 billion to $126 billion.