Analysis Group Team Issues Report Estimating Projected Global Economic Impacts of Artificial Intelligence
February 25, 2016
An Analysis Group team led by Managing Principal Lau Christensen, and including Vice President Greg Rafert and Manager Kevin Gallagher, was retained by Facebook to study the global economic impacts associated with the use, development, and adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) over the next 10 years. To address the challenges of predicting the economic impacts associated with rapidly evolving innovations such as AI, the Analysis Group team employed two approaches to construct a reasonable range of estimates of the potential economic effects associated with AI: a more conservative "bottom up" approach that estimated only the economic impact resulting from the return on venture capital and private sector investment in AI, and a more optimistic "top down" approach that relied on the global economic impacts of past technological innovations as benchmarks for AI.
The Analysis Group team concluded that a reasonable range for the global economic impact associated with the use, development, and adoption of AI from 2016 through 2025 is between $1.49 trillion and $2.95 trillion.