Analysis Group Supports Effort to Understand Risks Associated with Reopening Quebec’s Economy
A team of economists from Analysis Group, one of the largest international economics consulting firms, undertook a pro bono project to help the Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en analyse des organisations (CIRANO) understand the risks of reopening the province’s economy and inform decision making should a second wave emerge. The project involved an adaption of the Vancouver School of Economics’s COVID-19 Risk/Reward Assessment Tool.
The COVID-19 Risk/Reward Assessment Tool for Quebec takes into account how Quebec’s unique population density, economic workings, and societal preferences affect important factors in the viral transmission risk for jobs from more than 100 occupations, as well as the importance of each occupation to Quebec’s overall economy. The tool uses streamlined, interactive graphics to make sense of highly complex data, obtained from O*NET Online, about aspects of an occupation that could impact transmission risk; and data obtained from Statistics Canada about the workers themselves, based on the Canadian Labor Force Surveys from 2010 to 2020 and the 2016 Canadian Census of Population. Policymakers can use the tool to understand viral transmission risk to certain occupations from many industries to help inform decision making.
The benefits of reopening an industry are measured by how many people an industry employs, job losses due to coronavirus, and the sector’s economic contribution as measured by its gross domestic product. The tool takes into account occupational risk factors such as physical proximity of employees, number of face-to-face contacts, whether the work is performed indoors or outdoors, and the extent to which the job requires working with external customers or the public.
The workers’ socioeconomic factors are also considered in the risk calculations. For example, living with a health care worker, taking public transportation, and being unable to work from home can all impact transmission risk, as can living conditions and occupancy density relative to the size of a worker’s home.
Analysis Group Managing Principal Lisa Pinheiro, Principal Jimmy Royer, Manager Patrick Gagnon, and Associates Timea Laura Molnar and Jutong Pan worked with a team of experts from CIRANO, and in collaboration with University of Quebec in Montreal’s Research Group on Human Capital, Dalhousie University, and the Vancouver School of Economics at the University of British Columbia. The COVID-19 Risk/Reward Assessment Tool for Quebec is free to access from CIRANO’s website, in English or in French.
The tool has been presented to the Institut national de santé publique du Québec, Commission des partenaires du marché du travail, Chambre de commerce du Montréal métropolitain, Health Canada, and Statistics Canada.
To learn more about Analysis Group’s capabilities, visit www.AnalysisGroup.com
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About Analysis Group:
Analysis Group is one of the largest international economics consulting firms, with more than 1,000 professionals across 14 offices in North America, Europe, and Asia. Since 1981, we have provided expertise in economics, finance, health care analytics, and strategy to top law firms, Fortune Global 500 companies, and government agencies worldwide. Our internal experts, together with our network of affiliated experts from academia, industry, and government, offer our clients exceptional breadth and depth of expertise.