Fuel and Energy Security in New York State: An Assessment of Winter Operational Risks for a Power System in Transition
White Paper, November 2019
At the request of the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO), the organization that administers the wholesale markets and ensures the reliability of the New York State power system, Analysis Group Principal Paul Hibbard and Manager Charles Wu have prepared a forward-looking analysis of the fuel and energy security of the New York electric grid during winter operations.
Since 2000, New York State has significantly increased reliance on natural gas, which has lowered prices and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions but also potentially decreases the diversity of power system infrastructure. The report evaluates risks to fuel and energy supply for the winter of 2023/2024 using a scenario-based model. It considers variables such as severe weather events, energy demand, pipeline capacity, liquid fuel inventories, supply and demand balances, and potential physical disruptions.
This study provides an opportunity for NYISO to identify potential power system vulnerabilities and explore key risk factors most likely to affect the state’s electric system during periods of extreme cold.