Implications of stroke and bleeding risk scores and comorbidities on episode-based bundled payments for patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation

OBJECTIVES:

Due to the high cost of nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF), this condition may be a suitable candidate for condition-specific bundled payments. This paper evaluates the healthcare cost of NVAF and uses common bleeding and stroke risk scores (HAS-BLED and CHA2DS2-VASc) to explore the risk-based healthcare cost differences among NVAF patients.

METHODS:

MarketScan claims of NVAF patients (ICD-9-CM code 427.31) were analyzed from January 2010 to April 2015. These claims feature more than 196 million covered lives and more than 300 contributing employers and 25 contributing health plans. A retrospective cohort design was used to assess episodes of care costs among patients with NVAF. Previously and newly diagnosed NVAF patients were selected from adult patients with ≥2 diagnoses of NVAF, and without valvular disease. Total all-cause healthcare costs at 1 year were stratified by stroke (CHA2DS2-VASc) and bleeding (HAS-BLED) risk scores. Study data was extracted in the MarketScan Commercial Claims and Encounters Database (Commercial Database) and the MarketScan Medicare Supplemental and Coordination of Benefits Database (Medicare Supplemental Database).

RESULTS:

Mean all-cause 1 year cost of care based on stroke risk (CHA2DS2-VASc) varied from $15,703 to $59,163 for previously diagnosed and $25,992 to $62,458 for newly diagnosed NVAF. Similarly, mean cost varied base on bleeding risk (HAS-BLED) for previously and newly diagnosed NVAF from $17,950 to $57,029 and $26,356 to $67,104 respectively.

CONCLUSION:

NVAF patients accrue variable healthcare costs. Stroke and bleeding risk should be taken into account during the creation of NVAF payment bundles.