Demand Study Regarding a Potential Combination Drug for a Major Pharmaceutical Company
A major pharmaceutical company with two complementary drug therapies used to treat a common ailment retained Analysis Group to determine whether a combined medication was a viable option. The assignment required forecasting for each drug independently, as well as in a variety of combined doses, to determine an optimum dual dosage that would best balance demand for the individual drugs and for the potential combination. The Analysis Group team – led by Managing Principal Ed Tuttle – developed a forecast model and estimation of the net present value for multiple product profiles and market scenarios. To support the modeling, the team conducted qualitative and quantitative data assessments in the United States, major European markets, and Japan, including primary market research to determine the willingness of physicians to prescribe under varying product profiles and the likelihood of payer reimbursement. The findings from the demand study guided the pharmaceutical company in its "go/no-go decision" regarding the combined medication and in subsequent decisions on optimum dual dosage and appropriate price points for reimbursement.