A Risk Score for Fluconazole Failure among Patients with Candidemia
Antimicrobial Agents Chemotherapy. 2017 Apr 24;61(5). pii: e02091-16. doi: 10.1128/AAC.02091-16. Print 2017 May.
This study aimed to develop a prediction model to identify patients with candidemia who were at high risk of failing fluconazole treatment. Adult patients in the United States with candidemia who received fluconazole during hospitalization were selected from the Cerner Health Facts Hospital Database (04/2004 to 03/2013). Fluconazole failure was defined as switching/adding another antifungal, positive Candida culture ≥10 days after fluconazole initiation, or death during hospitalization. Patients were randomized into modeling and validation samples. Using the modeling sample, a regression analysis of least absolute shrinkage and selection operator was used to select risk predictors of fluconazole failure (demographics, Candida species, initiation of fluconazole before positive culture and after admission, and comorbidities, procedures, and treatments during the 6 months before admission and fluconazole initiation). The prediction model was evaluated using the validation sample. We found that of 987 identified patients (average age of 61 years, 51% male, 72% Caucasian), 49% failed and 51% did not fail fluconazole treatment. Of those who failed, 70% switched or added another antifungal, 21% had a second positive Candida test, and 42% died during hospitalization. Nine risk factors were included in the prediction model: days to start fluconazole after admission, Candida glabrata or Candida krusei infection, hematological malignancy, venous thromboembolism (VTE), enteral nutrition, use of nonoperative intubation/irrigation, and other antifungal use. All but VTE were associated with a higher risk of failure. The model's c-statistic was 0.65, with a Hosmer-Lemeshow test P value of 0.23. In summary, this prediction model identified patients with a high risk of fluconazole failure, illustrating the potential value and feasibility of personalizing candidemia treatment.