Climate Change Impact and Resilience Study – Phase II: An Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Power System Reliability in New York State

White Paper, 2020

The 2019 New York State Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act (CLCPA) requires reducing 100% of the state electricity sector’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2040, a significant transformation for the New York grid. At the request of the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO), an Analysis Group team led by Principal Paul Hibbard, former chairman of the Massachusetts Public Utilities Commission, has written a report that presents an assessment of resources available to meet electricity demand without GHG emissions in the year 2040, the potential impacts on power system reliability associated with system changes, and the potential effect for short-term disruptions due to climate change.

The report, titled Climate Change Impact and Resilience Study – Phase II: An Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Power System Reliability in New York State, presents the purpose, analytic method, and observations drawn from Analysis Group’s nine-month review. The new study builds on electricity demand projections for 2040 developed in the preceding Climate Change Phase I Study.

The Phase II study, co-written by Manager Charles Wu, Senior Analyst Hannah Krovetz, and Analysts Tyler Farrell and Jessica Landry, simulates potential impacts of climate change and climate policy on the reliable operation of the New York power system, and presents observations to enable the NYISO, market participants, policy makers, and other stakeholders to consider whether potential impacts warrant changes to planning, operational practices, or market designs.

The project was completed with assistance from the NYISO with respect to system data and analyses, and with input from stakeholders in the NYISO’s Electric System Planning Working Group (ESPWG) and on the Transmission Planning Advisory Subcommittee (TPAS).

Read the report

Read Appendix A: Input Data to Electric System Model

Read Appendix B: Loss of Load Duration Curves for all Scenarios and Physical Disruptions

Read Appendix C: Diagnostic Chart for All Cases

Authors

Hibbard PJ, Wu C, Krovetz H, Farrell T, Landry J