Study to Establish New York Electricity Market ICAP Demand Curve Parameters

White Paper, September 2016

On January 17, 2017, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) issued its initial Order in Docket ER17-386-000, largely adopting the recommendations of the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) for the Installed Capacity (ICAP) Demand Curves, which derived from the recommendations of Analysis Group in a study conducted for the NYISO.

A team from Analysis Group, including Principals Paul Hibbard and Todd Schatzki, and Manager Craig Aubuchon worked with the NYISO and market participants through a more than yearlong stakeholder process before issuing a final Report in September 2016. In developing their recommendations, the Analysis Group team reviewed a wide range of technology and financial modeling choices. This included a review of the most likely generating technology to enter the market, with the lowest available fixed costs and highest variable costs; an assessment and analysis of potential net energy revenues available to that unit, after considering natural gas availability and costs; and an assessment of likely financial risks and a developer's likely cost of capital for such a project. After submitting their final report, and in support of the NYISO DCR filing with FERC, the Analysis Group team offered several affidavits attesting to their analysis.

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Hibbard P, Schatzki T, Aubuchon C, Llop C, Berk E