Validation of a New Risk Measure for Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Exacerbation Using Health Insurance Claims Data

Annals of the American Thoracic Society, 2016 04. e-pub ahead of print 2016/04/14

Current chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbation risk prediction models are based on clinical datanot easily accessible to national quality-of-care organizations and payers. Models developed from data sources available to these organizations are needed.

This study aimed to validate a risk measure constructed using pharmacy claims in patients with COPD. Administrative claims data were used to construct a risk model to test and validate the ratio of controller (maintenance) medications to total COPD medications (CTR) as an independent risk measure for COPD exacerbations. The ability of the CTR to predict the risk of COPD exacerbations was also assessed.


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Stanford RH, Nag A, Mapel DW, Lee TA, Rosiello R, Vekeman F, Gauthier-Loiselle M, Duh MS, Merrigan JF, Schatz M.