Analysis Group Authors Evaluate Historical, Forecasted US Electricity Demand
August 21, 2025
In January 2025, President Trump declared a “national energy emergency,” warning that America’s increasing demand for electricity from AI, data centers, and electric cars and buildings threatened what he called the country’s already “inadequate energy supply.” A team of Analysis Group authors studied the factors impacting today’s electrical supply and demand and existing US energy policies, and considered these findings in the context of the administration’s emergency actions, which have included executive orders and proposed regulations rolling back prior energy and climate policies.
In the white paper, the authors – Principal Paul Hibbard, Associate Scott Ario, Senior Analyst Grace Maley, and Analyst Alison Li – examined electricity demand growth for the last half-century and forecast data through 2035. Among the paper’s takeaways is that forecasted electricity demand growth rates for the next decade “are not out of line with historical experience” and are actually “within rates of growth that the industry has reliably met for decades” through existing market and regulatory planning processes. The authors demonstrate the tendency of forecasters to overestimate future electricity demand, and highlight several periods of historical demand growth that exceed current forecasts of demand through 2035. The authors note that “there is no reason to believe the investment and development interest in supply will not keep pace with demand.”
In tandem, the authors detail the economic, health, and climate impacts of the administration’s actions – including increasing electricity costs and premature mortalities and illnesses. The report was prepared at the request of the Environmental Defense Fund.