Econometric Modeling

Analysis Group has extensive experience in econometric modeling, including regression analysis, to test hypotheses and develop forecasts in both litigation and non-litigation contexts.

In finance-related litigation, we have used financial asset pricing models to test for “abnormal” stock price behavior, controlling for changes in the industry and stock market. We have also estimated expected mortgage defaults based on benchmark loans, controlling for loan and borrower characteristics and macroeconomic changes. In our antitrust work, we have applied econometric analysis to evaluate the impact of alleged anticompetitive conduct and prospective mergers, and to assess other competition issues. In addition to supporting affirmative testimony, we frequently provide expert rebuttal of opposing experts’ damages models. 

Outside of litigation, we have helped clients quantify operational and financial risk by modeling complex business and market environments and have provided strategic support to clients in health care and other industries. We have also applied regression analysis to public policy questions in a variety of settings.

Examples of our work include:

  • Finance
    • Estimating financial payments made due to alleged fraud
    • Estimating default and prepayment models for mortgage loans underlying litigated residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS)  
    • Assessing the effects of one of many explanatory variables, such as in “event study” analyses
    • Developing a new performance measure to identify superior individual hedge funds
  • Antitrust
  • Health Care
  • Surveys and Consumer Behavior
    • Undertaking a conjoint analysis of survey data
    • Developing models of complex consumer decision making 
  • Class Actions
    • Analyzing vehicle depreciation rates in auto defect class actions
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